Originally published by Dr. Hany Guirguis, Manhattan College and Dr. Timothy Savage, New York University on August 2020 for NAIOP Research Foundation
COVID-19 Spurs Demand for E-Commerce, but Recession Produces Headwinds for Industrial Real Estate
The U.S. macroeconomic landscape has deteriorated significantly since NAIOP’s February 2020 Industrial Space Demand Forecast. Most notably, the economy entered a recession that is likely to continue through the end of the year. Although industrial real estate has outperformed other commercial property types this year due to a surge in e-commerce, broader macroeconomic indicators suggest industrial space absorption will decline sharply in Q3 2020 and then rebound to positive levels in Q2 2021 (see Figure 1).