Originally published on October 25, 2023 by Brielle Scott for NAIOP.

Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future. At NAIOP’s CRE.Converge last week in Seattle, attendees had an opportunity to hear from him at the closing keynote.

Zeihan covered everything from Stalin to NAFTA to the best time to buy a BMW. Here are just a few takeaways from his talk.

U.S. DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS AND THE LABOR FORCE

“What we’re seeing is a significant relocation of people – the biggest since the 1950s,” Zeihan said. People are moving to an arc of cities from roughly Salt Lake City down the Front Range into Texas, back up through the South to around Richmond. “That ‘U’ is seeing a fairly strong internal population migration. Everyone else is seeing a decline.” Which generations are moving? Those who have money to spend (Boomers) and families to raise (millennials).

Originally published on May 19, 2023, by Kathryn Hamilton, CAE for NAIOP.

Opening with an image of a sailboat, National Forums Symposium keynote Heidi Learner said the photo captures the whipsaw tone of economic news today, with sudden shifts in unexpected directions.

Learner is head of innovation with Altus Labs and spoke to 800+ NAIOP National Forums members during their annual meeting this week in Boston. Here are some key takeaways from her remarks:

• Unemployment has hit 50-year lows, but payroll additions are slowing and we’re not creating jobs at the same pace. Inflation remains high but has dropped from the 9.1% peak seen last summer.  
• Real (inflation-adjusted) spending in April 2020 was 18% lower than in February 2020; but by March 2021, it had returned to February’s level. The outlook for spending is key because consumer spending is approximately two-thirds of total economic output.

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Originally published on May 19, 2023, by Kathryn Hamilton for NAIOP.

Opening with an image of a sailboat, National Forums Symposium keynote Heidi Learner said the photo captures the whipsaw tone of economic news today, with sudden shifts in unexpected directions.

Learner is head of innovation with Altus Labs and spoke to 800+ NAIOP National Forums members this week during their annual meeting in Boston. Here are some key takeaways from her remarks:

• Unemployment has hit 50-year lows, but payroll additions are slowing and we’re not creating jobs at the same pace. Inflation remains high but has dropped from the 9.1% peak seen last summer.  
• Real (inflation-adjusted) spending in April 2020 was 18% lower than in February 2020; but by March 2021, it had returned to February’s level. The outlook for spending is key because consumer spending is approximately two-thirds of total economic output.

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Originally published on March 20, 2023, by Larry Lichtenauer for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Impending recession expected to be grinding, enduring and especially difficult for Class B and C office space

With all signs pointing to an economic recession – presumably arriving midyear or Q3 – how can the commercial real estate community best plan for this event, what lessons can be learned from similar downturns, how long will this period last and which asset classes will be particularly hard hit? Recessions cause hardships and are never a good thing, but what silver linings and opportunities will be available to savvy investors and progressive companies? Offering their insights and perspectives on this topic are Anirban Basu, chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group and Jennifer LeFurgy, Ph.D., vice president of knowledge and research for NAIOP.    

An already-challenging real estate environment is poised to get worse

Jennifer LeFurgy (JL): The NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index is predicting a gradual slowdown this year in new development, as well as sales and leasing activity across the board, but we do not foresee a catastrophic event. The commercial office sector will be particularly impacted with projects paused, foreclosures and slower dealmaking, which rising construction costs and labor issues will exacerbate. Guidance is calling for a difficult first quarter, followed by a slow, but gradual pickup in late Q2 or early Q3. Research indicates that Class B and Class C buildings, particularly those located in urban areas, will face considerable challenges due to the number of employees still working remotely and the flight-to-quality trend prevalent among many tenants. An additional complication is a slowdown in the development approval process and difficulty in obtaining entitlements. As interest rates continue to rise, the office sector becomes increasingly risky, and we can expect to see more adaptive reuse projects.

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Originally published on February 6, 2023, by NAIOP.

The four phases of commercial real estate development yield significant contributions to the U.S. economy, creating jobs and building the places we work, shop, live and play. In 2022, combined economic contributions of new commercial building development and the operations of existing commercial buildings:

• Contributed $2.3 trillion to U.S. GDP
• Generated $831.8 billion in personal earnings
• Supported a total of 15.1 million jobs

Each dollar of construction spending generates $2.89 in economic, reflecting the cumulative effects of the initial construction expenditures as they cycle throughout the economy. Construction spending of $1.8 trillion yields $5.2 trillion to U.S. GDP.

State economies benefit from a healthy commercial real estate industry, which yields state revenue and adds inventory to attract new businesses and jobs.

Originally published on February 3, 2023, by Brielle Scott for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Painting a picture of the current global economic climate is a complex venture, but Reva Goujon, director at Rhodium Group, leveraged her vast geopolitical expertise to do so at NAIOP’s Chapter Leadership and Legislative Retreat this week in Washington, D.C.

“First – catch your breath!” Goujon said at the start of her remarks, pointing out that 2022 created a cocktail of inflationary drivers, including:

• The land war in Europe, which caused a surge in food and energy prices.
• Tightening monetary policy (“How is the Fed going to land this plane?” she asked).
• A still-tight labor market (“There are nearly twice as many job openings as eligible workers,” Goujon noted).
• The U.S.’s “next-level” financial sanctions against Russia and tech controls against China.
• China ending its “zero-COVID” policy with a bang, among other factors.

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