Economic Outlook: Hardships and Silver Linings

Originally published on March 20, 2023, by Larry Lichtenauer for NAIOP E-Newsletter.

Impending recession expected to be grinding, enduring and especially difficult for Class B and C office space

With all signs pointing to an economic recession – presumably arriving midyear or Q3 – how can the commercial real estate community best plan for this event, what lessons can be learned from similar downturns, how long will this period last and which asset classes will be particularly hard hit? Recessions cause hardships and are never a good thing, but what silver linings and opportunities will be available to savvy investors and progressive companies? Offering their insights and perspectives on this topic are Anirban Basu, chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group and Jennifer LeFurgy, Ph.D., vice president of knowledge and research for NAIOP.    

An already-challenging real estate environment is poised to get worse

Jennifer LeFurgy (JL): The NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index is predicting a gradual slowdown this year in new development, as well as sales and leasing activity across the board, but we do not foresee a catastrophic event. The commercial office sector will be particularly impacted with projects paused, foreclosures and slower dealmaking, which rising construction costs and labor issues will exacerbate. Guidance is calling for a difficult first quarter, followed by a slow, but gradual pickup in late Q2 or early Q3. Research indicates that Class B and Class C buildings, particularly those located in urban areas, will face considerable challenges due to the number of employees still working remotely and the flight-to-quality trend prevalent among many tenants. An additional complication is a slowdown in the development approval process and difficulty in obtaining entitlements. As interest rates continue to rise, the office sector becomes increasingly risky, and we can expect to see more adaptive reuse projects.

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