New Report: COVID-19 Predicted to Decrease U.S. Office Demand

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published the NAIOP Office Space Demand Forecast for Q2 2020.

Key Takeaways:

  • Due to the turmoil in the national economy, rising unemployment and continued uncertainty about future work arrangements, the U.S. office market absorption is forecast to decline into negative territory through the second quarter of 2021.
     
  • The steepest declines may be experienced in the third quarter of 2020, with NAIOP's model forecasting a drop of 16.3 million square feet. Absorption rates will increase as the economy begins to gain traction in 2021.
     
  • While the economic benefits of density and agglomeration are well-documented, COVID-19 may necessitate a type of "de-densification" in office space, at least in the near term. As a result, current office-using space will face short-term logistical challenges.
     
  • While U.S. states begin the process of a staged re-opening, employees will arguably put a premium on workplace cleanliness. They will also put a premium on personal space, which may contribute to increased demand for office space.
     
  • Many large organizations have begun to consider a "hub-and-spoke" model for work arrangements, enhanced by technology that allows for the economic gains from agglomeration while recognizing the challenges created by the pandemic.
View the full report.
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