The Vaccines are Here. What Happens Next?

Originally published  by Trey Barrineau for NAIOP Spring 2021 Issue

The rollout of immunizations to defeat COVID-19 has enormous implications for the commercial real estate industry.

In late 2020, the U.S. and other countries began distributing vaccines to control the COVID-19 pandemic. It is the single most important development in the year-long fight against the disease, which has killed and sickened millions around the world and crippled the global economy.

The stakes are high. The vaccines will not only save lives and boost the morale of hundreds of millions who have been forced to live constrained lives due to lockdowns and other public health measures; experts say they are also the most important factor in the overall economic recovery from the pandemic. The commercial real estate industry has been hit hard by the pandemic, particularly the retail, office, and lodging sectors.

“If we get 70% to 85% of the country vaccinated by the end of the summer, I believe by the time we get to the fall, we will be approaching a degree of normality,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the chief medical advisor to President Biden, said in late January. “It’s not going to be perfectly normal, but one that I think will take a lot of pressure off the American public.”

The release of the vaccines also comes as new, more contagious variants of the disease began to spread rapidly across the globe, threatening to derail a fragile economic recovery that began over the summer as the first wave of the pandemic subsided. For example, the U.S. economy was expected to add 50,000 jobs in December 2020. Instead, it lost 140,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

 

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