May
22
The NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index for April 2024 is 52, a rebound from the September 2023 reading of 46, indicating that respondents expect conditions for commercial real estate to improve over the next 12 months.
Key Findings:
- Respondents have a positive outlook for every component that comprises the Index except for construction costs, which they expect to be higher next year. This marks a turnaround in sentiment for most CRE fundamentals, which was negative for almost every Index component in September.
- Respondents are now much more optimistic about capital market conditions than they were in September. The outlook for the availability of debt, the availability of equity and first-year cap rates improved more than for other measures. This shift is likely due to an expectation that interest rates will fall over the next 12 months. In response to a question that is not used to calculate the Index, developers and building owners indicated they expect interest rates to be lower than they had predicted in September.
- Respondents also expect demand for commercial real estate to improve slightly. Their outlook for occupancy rates and effective rents rose, with both measures now suggesting some improvement over the next year. Open-ended comments suggest that most respondents expect favorable demand for industrial, retail and multifamily, whereas office will likely continue to struggle.
- Developers and building owners now expect their deal volume to grow slightly over the next year. This is an improvement from September, when they had projected a decline in activity. Their expectation of handling a higher dollar volume of new projects and acquisitions reflects an improving outlook for capital availability.
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