By Linda Strowbridge 

Growing convergence between the retail and distribution sectors could have profound impacts on the commercial real estate industry. As retail and industrial clients adjust to shifts in consumer behavior and the overall economy, CRE professionals will be challenged to change their thinking about how to truly serve their clients. That challenge, however, could also produce innovative real estate products and new opportunities. That’s according to Dustin C. Read, Ph.D./J.D., author of the NAIOP Research Foundation report, “New Places and New Spaces for E-commerce Distribution: Three Strategies Bringing Industrial and Retail Real Estate Closer Together.”

What was the most interesting or significant discovery you made while researching the paper?

Read: It was probably that some of the most important phenomena related to the convergence of industrial and retail real estate were the ones that received the least attention. In the popular press, there has been lots of discussion of the conversion of obsolete retail buildings into distribution facilities. When you really drill down – even though there have been hundreds of articles written on that topic – the number of [these retail-to-distribution conversion] projects that have been successful in the U.S. is relatively small. I was surprised to see when you really start pulling back layers of the onion, there is more talk about it than there is actual execution of those types of projects.

The amalgamation of all the obstacles a developer must overcome to do one of these projects successfully is significant. The project has to be acquired at a relatively low purchase price and have the right access to infrastructure. It must be in a market that has good industrial characteristics and an area where the municipality has given up on the site as a viable retail location and is willing to rezone it for potential distribution. When all those things come together at the same time, there are opportunities for conversion. But often, they don’t all come together.

By Trey Barrineau

Industrial properties are often built near neighborhoods, but that isn’t always popular with the residents, who have legitimate concerns about noise, traffic and pollution from the increased volume of trucks and vans.

A recent NAIOP online panel discussion examined how developers can work with local communities to address these worries through outreach and engagement, as well as with design and technological innovations.

“Education is key to establishing that relationship early on,” said Sven Tustin, executive vice president with Conor Commercial, who moderated the panel. “The developer has to listen to concerns. Residents look at a site plan that shows 200 dock doors, and they assume that there will be 200 trucks coming in and out 24/7.”

Bonds on November Ballot For Charlotte, Gastonia

On Nov. 8, Gastonia residents will vote on a $75 million Transportation General Obligation Bond Referendum. The City Council approved the bond referendum at its Aug. 2 meeting.  

Proposed projects include:

• Street and road repairs
• Pedestrian walkways (sidewalks)
• Street resurfacing
• Utility relocations
• Street intersection improvements
• Street light improvements

For more information, visit this link.       

Charlotte voters will also have the opportunity to vote on a $226 million bond package that will upgrade and enhance streets, build housing for low-to moderate-income individuals and families, and improve infrastructure in the city's older neighborhoods and emerging high-growth areas. 

By Marie Ruff

Since the start of the pandemic, sleepy small towns and suburbs have taken on new luster as people have migrated en masse from the urban core, drawn by the lower cost of living and with the flexibility afforded by increased remote work options. Will this be the new normal, or will people move back to the major metropolises once we put the pandemic behind us? What does it mean for office real estate in the short and long term?

In a recent NAIOP webinar, experts from Marcus & Millichap shared their research and insights into how these trends are shaping the investment landscape for urban and suburban office spaces. They began by examining the broader economic context underlying the urban to suburban shift before discussing recent office sale trends, the impact of demographics and what’s ahead for this sector.

U.S. Office Supply and Demand Trends

Office vacancy rates have been elevated since the onset of the pandemic; however, office rate absorption has also been positive for five consecutive quarters. “Although it is soft, it is not as soft as some people perceive,” said John Chang, senior vice president, national director research services, Marcus & Millichap. There was only a brief period of net negative office space absorption in 2020 and have been making a recovery, albeit sometimes slowly, since.

Amid lower pressure on global supply chains, increasing inventory carrying costs, a cooling economy and a decrease in the rate of e-commerce expansion, retailers and logistics firms have slowed the rate at which they acquired additional industrial space this year. Net absorption of industrial space in the first two quarters of 2022 was 151.2 million square feet, down sharply from 2021’s record pace but still notably higher than in prior years (see Figure 2). The authors expect the still-hot industrial market to cool, and they forecast that the net absorption rate will continue to decline until it returns to the pre-pandemic trend. Total net absorption of industrial space in the second half of 2022 is forecast to be 112.4 million square feet, and full-year absorption in 2023 is forecast to be 209.4 million square feet (see Figure 1 for quarterly projections).

The Industrial Market

Supply chain congestion eased during the first half of 2022, as illustrated by the decline in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index from 4.35 in December 2021 to 2.41 in June 2022. As a result, retailers and logistics firms have shown less interest in leasing or buying industrial space before it is needed, a trend that contributed to higher absorption in 2021. Amazon’s decision to substantially scale back its expansion plans is the most prominent example of this shift in demand for industrial space. Nonetheless, smaller e-commerce firms, and even traditional retailers, continue to lease more distribution space despite slowing e-commerce growth as more consumers return to shopping at bricks-and-mortar retail. Industrial vacancy rates remain historically low as the ability to supply new space continues to face physical and political limitations in land-constrained markets. These low vacancy rates continue to cause asking rents, and ultimately transaction prices, to increase. Premium prices are being paid for properties with soon-to-expire leases and even vacancies as they allow owners to lease out more space at record-high market rates.

By Toby Burke

The economic slowdown from the COVID-19 pandemic initially raised concerns within states that general revenue collections would be lower than anticipated and, as a result, create shortfalls in maintaining a balanced budget. Although revenue collections from specific sectors of the economy, such as hospitality and tourism, were lower, overall revenue shortfalls from the pandemic did not materialize in most states. Partially bolstered by e-commerce and the collection of state sales tax from internet transactions, revenue collections increased, producing budget surpluses. These surpluses provided an opportunity for states to enact various tax relief measures.

To put it in perspective, the Fiscal Survey of the States, spring 2022 version, from the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO), indicates that general revenue collections have increased in 49 states for the fiscal year 2022. The estimated 3.2% growth in revenue collections for the fiscal year is projected to be followed by a more nominal growth of 1.4% for the fiscal year 2023.

Midway through the fiscal year 2022, the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) also reported that revenue collections remained strong and surpassed expectations based on personal income taxes, sales taxes, and other revenue sources. These budget surpluses from more vital than anticipated revenue collections have spurred state legislatures to debate and pass legislation that reduces taxes and provides economic incentives and other tax credit measures within their budgets for the fiscal year 2023. The Georgia General Assembly, for example, passed HB 1437 this year, which replaces the state’s graduated income tax – the top level of 5.99% – with a flat tax starting at 5.49% that will gradually reduce to 4.99% by 2029.

An overview by the Tax Foundation of tax reform measures within the states included:

TOP FIVE US METROS FOR LIFE SCIENCES IN 2022

By Ioana Ginsac

Growth in the life sciences sector has driven demand in recent years for both commercial real estate space and labor to accommodate this specialized sector. A new study by commercial real estate platform CommercialCafe set out to identify the best metros for life science companies in 2022 and assessed more than 40 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in terms of regional talent pool and workforce; accessibility of local office markets; the degree of availability of existing dedicated property; as well as the state of the local pipeline aiming to expand local life sciences capacity.

Boston took the number one spot on the list, with San Francisco in second place, then San Diego third, New York fourth, and Washington, D.C., rounding out the top five.

A longtime “flagship market” for life sciences, the Boston metropolitan area remains a leader in the sector. The MSA stood out for several key indices scored in the ranking: Boston boasts the largest labor pool among the metros analyzed, as well as the largest life sciences real estate market — nearly 25 million square feet of existing dedicated property, of which just under 14 million square feet was LEED-certified space. What’s more, with an additional 23.8 million square feet of new life sciences developments in the pipeline — under construction, as well as in the planned and prospective stages — Boston seems firmly placed at number one for the foreseeable future.

• By Russ Hazzard, Jonathan Chang, Development Magazine (photo of Vancouver, B.C. Costco by Raef Grohne)

Experiences in Canada and Asia provide case studies for building these complex properties.

Over the past 15 years, multilevel warehouses — particularly those used for retail purposes — have been a growing trend across Asia and, more recently, in the United States. However, some challenges accompany their design and construction that are not encountered in the traditional approach to large-format retail. With operational criteria at the top of the list, these challenges vary heavily based on several factors, including location, footprint, environment, jurisdictional requirements, and cultural and community influences.

The increase in demand for and construction of multilevel warehouses has unearthed numerous unique considerations not present in traditional warehouse environments. These challenges — each intricate in their own right — have required creative solutions and careful programming to successfully bring each project to life.

Parking and Vehicle Flow

One of the most critical design challenges for vertical warehouses is the traffic flow of vehicles and the structure’s parking. While the goal is to keep the sales level on a single floor for ease of operations and the consumer’s shopping experience, parking for multilevel warehouses can reside either above or below grade. Both options have pros and cons: Below-grade parking requires excavation, which can increase costs and complications. However, it provides a solution for lot coverage or height restrictions in situations where those apply. Above-grade or rooftop parking is preferred as it saves both construction time and money.

Customized resolutions to optimize vehicle traffic flow and increase ease of parking have also been employed, varying from warehouse to country to country. For example, in Sinjhuang, Taiwan, indication lights for open parking spaces are used to determine capacity at a glance. In Suzhou, China, car ramps at the entrance steer customers directly up to each floor, allowing them to bypass complete levels. Larger-than-regulation parking spaces — typically very compact in Asia — are also used, granting customers peace of mind. There is no need to worry about maneuvering around tightly packed vehicles in the garage. As an added benefit, large spaces also increase vehicle flow; running in and out of an area is completed in one move vs. two or three.