The NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index for September 2023 is 46, slightly down from the April 2023 reading, and indicating that respondents expect conditions for commercial real estate to worsen over the next 12 months. 

Key Findings:

• Respondents have a negative outlook for every component that comprises the Index except for asking rents, which they expect to be slightly higher next year. However, they now expect effective rents to fall slightly more than they had predicted in April, and their outlook for occupancy rates remains negative, suggesting higher asking rents will provide little relief.
   
• Respondents now expect capital market conditions to deteriorate less rapidly than they had predicted in April. They expect future equity availability will be almost as high as it is now, suggesting that equity flows may be close to bottoming out. Nonetheless, they still expect debt to be less available than it is now, and for cap rates to increase. In response to a question that is not used to calculate the Index, developers and building owners indicated they expect interest rates to be slightly higher than they had predicted in April.
   
• Developers and building owners expect their own deal volume to shrink but at a slower rate than in April. Their outlook for a reduction in the dollar volume of new projects and acquisitions echoes respondents’ expectations for a slowing decline in capital availability.
   
• Respondents still expect general industry conditions to worsen, but less than they previously expected. The score for general industry conditions (45) is calculated separately from the CRE Sentiment Index. Its continued rebound is most likely due to a less pessimistic outlook for the economy overall. Asked separately from the questions that comprise the Index, developers and building owners indicated they expect no change in local economic conditions over the next 12 months, an improvement from April.
    
• Respondents now expect employment in their own firms to decline slightly over the next year, suggesting that deteriorating market conditions are now being felt more directly by commercial real estate firms.

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Originally published by Hany Guirguis, Ph.D., Manhattan College and Michael J. Seiler, DBA, College of William & Mary in August 2023 for NAIOP.

Given current economic conditions and recent demand trends, the authors estimate that quarterly net absorption of industrial space will average 52.6 million square feet over the next two years. Total net absorption for the second half of 2023 is forecast to be approximately 104 million square feet; full-year absorption in 2024 is forecast to be around 205 million square feet; and absorption in the first half of 2025 is forecast to be approximately 111 million square feet (see Figure 1 for quarterly projections).

The Industrial Market

The industrial market remains relatively healthy, although not as strong as it was last year. After several quarters of demand for industrial space outstripping supply, the reverse has been true since the third quarter of 2022. Construction starts and transactions have slowed, reflecting higher interest rates, tighter lending standards and cooling demand. Supply and demand for industrial space appear to be converging toward a slower pace of growth that is more aligned with pre-pandemic trends.

The national vacancy rate stands at a historically healthy 3.7%, though vacancies vary greatly between different geographic markets. Port markets on both the East and West Coasts have the lowest vacancy rates, with markets in the Midwest having slightly higher rates. Average net asking rents are up 9.9% year-over-year.¹ Interestingly, vacancy rates have increased slightly alongside rent growth. This reflects the delivery of new high-quality industrial space that can command higher rents. New deliveries have outpaced absorption, contributing to the uptick in vacancies. Land constraints in port markets present a barrier to new construction, contributing to lower vacancy rates and higher rents in those markets.

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Community Area Plans provide community-level guidance for the built environment including land use, design, transportation, and open space within the city's 14 sub-geographies.

These plans complement the Charlotte Future 2040 Comprehensive Plan and are an important part of the city’s planning framework which ensures all planning efforts are aligned and aimed at implementing Charlotte’s vision for the future.

Process Overview

The Community Area Planning process includes five phases. The first four phases are scheduled to be completed from 2023 – 2024.

• Phase 1, Setting the Stage, identified each community’s greatest needs to ensure expected growth benefits everyone. The results of Phase 1 are available in the Community Reports.
• Phase 2, Creating Great Places, is underway. This phase will ensure future development supports each community’s priorities by reviewing and refining the Place Type designations within the Charlotte Future 2040 Policy Map. Learn more about sharing your voice in Phase 2 below!
• Phase 3, Supporting the Vision, is scheduled to begin next Spring. Stakeholders will help identify infrastructure projects and supportive programs needed to realize the community’s vision. Be on the look out for information about virtual and in-person workshops beginning in April and ending in June. 
• Phase 4, Planning for Action, will begin in the Fall 2024. Staff will develop a strategy for putting the plan’s recommendations into action. 
• Phase 5, Review & Adoption, is scheduled to begin in 2025. 

Learn more about Community Area Planning

Originally published on October 2, 2023, by Kim Synder for NAIOP.

Since assuming the position of NAIOP chair in January, I’ve had the pleasure of visiting chapters from Orlando to Milwaukee to SoCal, talking with thousands of members about current market conditions, the forces impacting our industry, and our future as an organization. Four topics have frequently arisen during these conversations, regardless of chapter location or size. These include:  

1. Community Relations. In today’s environment, it’s essential that developers fully understand the impact of their product type on the communities in which they operate, particularly regarding the types of jobs, hours of operations and the environmental impacts of their project (traffic, water, energy, etc.). Whether developing in South Florida, New Jersey, Chicago or Los Angeles, our chapters report increased anti-growth sentiment and the importance of engaging with the community early and often.

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The recently passed North Carolina State Budget contains millions of dollars for Union County to make sorely needed improvements to its water and sewer systems.  The final version contains the following funding allocations:

• Union County Water/Sewer - $26,000,000
• Waxhaw Greywater System - $1,500,000
• Wingate Water/Sewer System - $12,000,000
• Marshville Water/Sewer - $1,000,000
• Muddy Creek Water/Sewer - $11,000,000 

These funds are significant and should assist in enabling the County and associated municipalities to meet its current and immediate future water/sewer infrastructure needs.  The bill will become effective on October 2nd as Governor Cooper has announced his intention to let it become law without his signature.  To view the State Budget in its entirety, click this link.

On April 10, 2023, the Mooresville Town Board established a working group for the purpose of evaluating and exploring the feasibility of implementing a development moratorium.  

The working group has completed its assignment and its recommendations are as follows:

• Complete the update of the OneMooresville Plan and the UDO to better align future growth.
• As part of the OneMooresville Plan and the UDO, identify areas with adequate infrastructure and encourage development in those areas that are walkable and provide access to other multimodal transportation choices.
• Identify and investigate areas which are not possible to serve with existing town resources to determine if these areas qualify for a limited moratorium.
• When the housing study is complete, integrate the findings into the UDO and OneMooresville Plan with the goal of achieving an appropriate balance of housing options.
• Continue to investigate local transportation bonds and federal and state grant opportunities to improve intersections and other mobility options such as sidewalks, greenways, micro-transit, and expansion of the Mooresville Main bus system. Annexation decisions should include critical analysis of the ability to provide complete and adequate infrastructure and services such as school capacity, utilities, multimodal transportation, and public safety.
• All new development project decisions should include a review of by-right and previously approved developments to determine the total impact of the project on the surrounding area.
• Promote the implementation of the Traffic Management Center to manage current road infrastructure.

Originally published on September 28, 2023, by Billy Olson for NAIOP.

Construction projects have many moving parts, stakeholders and dependencies. If money doesn’t flow smoothly from lender to borrower, a project can quickly become delayed. Because construction loans are funded in increments, rather than all at once, managing draws are of the utmost importance.

One way to think about draw management is to conceptualize it as the project’s heartbeat. While there are other components to a project’s overall health, it’s difficult to imagine a project doing well if its heartbeat is off pace. But just as pacemakers exist to keep real hearts healthy, software can ensure draw management is executed seamlessly and on-schedule.

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Originally published on September 20, 2023, by Aquiles Suarez for NAIOP.

Usually, at this time of year, members of Congress and advocates for industry are strategizing on how best to position their tax priorities for inclusion in a year-end tax package. In many instances, success has depended on a tax title becoming part of a massive, must-pass omnibus spending bill that comes together in December, when senators and representatives desperately want to get home for the holidays.

But this time could be different. While fighting in Congress over spending bills is nothing new, the heated politics surrounding this year’s federal government funding battle, and the resulting animosity if a government shutdown does materialize, could linger well beyond October and make reaching an agreement on a tax bill all the more challenging.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which was passed in 2017 during the Trump administration, added various tax credits and deductions and made changes to depreciation, expensing, and other tax provisions that affect businesses. Many of these provisions have expired or are expiring in the coming years, or are being gradually phased down. Businesses would like to see them extended. Others are tax provisions that the business community wants to change. Tax provisions expiring in 2024 or 2025 are less likely to be dealt with this year, but House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) has introduced legislation restoring and extending provisions that have expired this year and revising some unexpired provisions based on industry input.

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Originally published on September 19, 2023, by Julia Wattick for NAIOP.

Every industry is being challenged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially with the U.S. government’s commitment to combat climate change and increase funding for these efforts. The construction industry has a considerable impact on global greenhouse gas emissions primarily due to its significant contributions to operational and embodied carbon, accounting for 28% and 11%, respectively, of total emissions.

To examine the impact of industrial real estate emissions and reduction strategies, BranchPattern, a national sustainability and engineering firm, recently released its 2023 Benchmark Study on Embodied Carbon in U.S. Industrial Real Estate in partnership with five major industrial real estate developers: Affinius Capital, Bridge Industrial, Brookfield Properties, IDI Logistics, and Prologis. Representatives from these companies are speaking at NAIOP’s upcoming CRE.Converge conference on Oct. 19 about the study’s findings and broader implications of materials selection as an effort to combat climate change. The panel will examine how the real estate industry defines carbon emissions, the typical contributors, and ways to reduce embodied carbon emissions. Read on to learn more about this important topic and why it’s coming to the forefront for building owners and developers.

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Originally published on September 13, 2023 by Kathryn Hamilton, CAE for NAIOP.

“Less than 2% of industrial space today is cold storage, and it probably needs to be at 15%. We’re not even in the first inning,” opened economist KC Conway in a keynote session at NAIOP’s I.CON Cold Storage conference this week in Atlanta.

Using the analogy of peeling back an onion, Conway identified four cold storage and capital markets “layers” to “see what makes us sweat and what makes us cry.”

Layer 1: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Policy. It’s getting harder to refinance out of existing debt, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) hasn’t yet addressed this, he said. There is $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate lending that needs to be refinanced – a significant portion of a $17 trillion industry. And this time, Conway noted, CRE isn’t to blame for overbuilding. Instead, it’s the Fed that has created a capital lockup and made it difficult for CRE to do projections and figure out financing. In the last 18 months, Conway said, we’ve seen the highest, fastest and steepest increases in interest rates in the history of the central bank. Companies and industries with fixed debt are going to see refinancing rates jump from 3-4% to 8-9%.

Originally published on September 6, 2023 by Eric Schmutz for NAIOP.

Welcome to September! With temperatures starting to cool down, kids heading back to school, and football season kicking off, it’s easy to forget that the federal fiscal year ends at the end of the month. That means that there are only 11 days when both the House and the Senate are scheduled to be in session before the current federal funding authorization expires. Moreover, only one of the annual appropriations bills has passed the House and none have passed the Senate.

In most years, the House and Senate leadership would simply agree to a continuing resolution (CR) that maintains existing federal policy and holds funding at current levels for a certain period to prevent a government shutdown before Oct. 1. Leadership would then negotiate an omnibus package that includes all 12 of the annual appropriations bills, and just when congressional members are desperate to get home for the winter recess, pass it late at night and leave town. 

This year, however, is not following Congress’ standard operating procedure, and is reminiscent of the years when congressional leaders were powerless to rein in the political forces that led to government shutdowns. Republicans hold a slim five-vote majority in the House while Democrats hold a mere one-seat majority in the Senate. Adding to the partisan pressure, President Joe Biden is up for reelection in just over 14 months; former President Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, faces multiple indictments on the federal and state levels; and two congressional committees are investigating Biden’s son Hunter’s business relationships with foreign entities to see whether those contracts involved the president. 

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Originally published on September 5, 2023, by Matthew Preston for NAIOP.

The diverse Gen Z generation has a wide range of priorities when it comes to choosing a city to live in. Some value affordability while others prioritize education and employment prospects. Still others are looking for a city with abundant recreational activities.

To help Gen Zers identify cities that align with their priorities, CommercialCafe analyzed major U.S. cities across a variety of key metrics. These included the Gen Z population share, educational attainment, affordability, eco-friendly commuting and park density. The results of this analysis created a comprehensive guide for Gen Zers who are looking for a city that values community, cost-effectiveness and sustainability.

MINNEAPOLIS TAKES LEAD AS ULTIMATE CITY FOR GEN Z

Minneapolis is the top city for Gen Z in 2023, and in fact, it already boasts a strong Gen Z population (roughly 10% of residents belong to this demographic) and attracts many others within this age group. Additionally, more than half of its Gen Z inhabitants are enrolled in post-secondary educational pursuits, making Minneapolis an attractive destination for young professionals to chase their career goals. Similarly, a low unemployment rate of 2.6% presents promising job prospects. Finally, the city’s budget-friendly subscriptions to high-speed internet access are especially appealing to the digital nomad types from this age group. 

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Last week, members of Charlotte’s real estate community spoke with several Charlotte City Council candidates to learn more about their views and how they see the future of Charlotte. Thank you to our event sponsors: Canopy Realtor® Association, Charlotte Region Commercial Board of REALTORS®, NAIOP Charlotte, Home Builders Association of Greater Charlotte, Inc. and the Real Estate & Building Industry Coalition (REBIC).

As a reminder, primary elections are on Tuesday, September 12.

Photo Album

Originally published on August 30, 2023, by Gary Baragona for NAIOP.

The slow recovery of the U.S. economy continues to have an impact on the office market in Seattle as well as across the county. Despite steady job growth and moderate economic recovery gains during the first half of 2023, the Puget Sound regional economy is still struggling and will face continued headwinds during the near term, bringing an enduring sense of uncertainty and concern. According to the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, regional employment grew by 3.1% in 2022 while job growth is forecasted to increase by an additional 3.3% in 2023 before dipping to 1.5% in 2024. Additionally, the consumer price index was at 8.9% to begin the year, with inflation forecasted to rise by 5.2% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024.

Despite recent job growth, the Seattle office market is experiencing a steady rise in vacancy, increasing from 5.8% in the second quarter of 2019 to 12.2% at the end of the second quarter of 2022, a 640-basis point jump over just a three-year period. Current vacancies are at a 10-year high and just registered the 12th quarterly increase over the past 14 quarters. One year ago, regional vacancy exceeded the 10% mark for the first time since 2013, and it has now eclipsed 12% for the first time since 2011. Additionally, more than 19% of the current vacancies are from sublease space, which is approximately 18% higher than it was last quarter. The increase was primarily due to an uptick in Eastside sublease vacancies over the quarter.

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Originally published on August 16, 2023, by Jim Villa from NAIOP.

Earlier this year NAIOP Wisconsin was made aware that the City of Wauwatosa was looking to fast-track the adoption of a transportation utility user charge or fee (TUF) in order to generate additional revenue for local transportation and infrastructure needs. The city cited the deferred maintenance of their aging infrastructure, fiscal infrastructure constraints set by state funding limits, and an equitable fee structure based on who uses the road for the new fee. The proposal was set to be considered for approval in July. Our concern was that the adoption of the transportation utility fee in Wauwatosa might lead to other cities considering similar unlawful measures for additional revenue.

The transportation utility fee would apply to both residential and commercial properties based on the vehicle traffic generated by the property’s use, and not necessarily their valuations. The city would cap the annual fee at $51.00 for single-family properties with a sliding scale for other properties based on national engineering standards. 

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Originally published in Summer 2023 by Robert Ferrin for the NAIOP Development Magazine.

Creative solutions and community engagement are crucial when dealing with changes to parking policies.

Minimum parking requirements, which require building owners to provide a fixed number of parking spaces, have played a key role in American municipal policy since the 1920s. Following their widespread adoption in the 1960s, these laws significantly impacted the design of cities and strongly contributed to the growth of a car-centric culture. Today, there are an estimated two billion parking spaces in the U.S., according to a March article in the New York Times.

In 2017, Buffalo, New York, ushered in a new era when it became the first major U.S. city to abolish parking minimums. Minneapolis, Raleigh, San Jose, and others followed. At the beginning of 2023, California became the first state to abolish parking minimums for developments located near public transportation routes.

Affordable housing, transit, and environmental advocates celebrated these policy changes. They point to lower development costs, improved walkability, and increased multimodal transportation, which reduces carbon emissions and vehicle congestion. Together, they can help municipalities meet their climate action goals.

Originally published on August 21, 2023, by the NAIOP Podcast: Inside CRE.

Mark, meet Marc. Mark Rose, chair and CEO of Avison Young, joins Marc on the podcast for a discussion about building a workplace culture that matters; what his experience tells him about challenges in the current economic climate; the rumor he’s heard about the Fed; and why he “couldn’t be more optimistic” about the office sector. Mark shares recent data about longer-term leases that may surprise you, talks about actively mentoring 14 professionals, and why he believes office space will return to the days when it was a key part of a company brand. Recorded on August 2, 2023.

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Originally published on August 18, 2023 by Paul Bubny for ConnectCRE.

The role of amenities has evolved since the pandemic—not only in the office sector, but in the ever-evolving industrial space as well. To provide an up-to-the-minute look at trends in amenitizing commercial spaces, NAIOP will devote an entire panel discussion to the subject at its CRE.Converge conference, scheduled for Oct. 18-20 in Seattle. In advance of that panel, Connect CRE spoke with two of the panelists—moderator Dawn Riegel, Principal with Ware Malcomb, and Jinger Tapia, VP Design at Ware Malcomb—for a preview. Here’s what they told us.

Q: Would you say that workplace amenities are now more important than they were prior to the pandemic?

Dawn Riegel: In the true office environment, the message I share with my clients is: you want to create a magnet versus a mandate. Meaning you want people to come back into the office and what you are offering them needs to be above and beyond what’s in the four walls of their house. It really is the social aspect for employees. The amenity spaces within office environments, and this does translate to industrial, are super important now more than ever. The hybrid work movement dictates that these amenity spaces be integrated into office spaces from day one.

Originally published in August 2023 by NAIOP.

NAIOP SELECTS FIVE EXCEPTIONAL YOUNG PROFESSIONALS TO RECEIVE 2023 DEVELOPING LEADERS AWARD

NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association, has selected five professionals to receive its prestigious 2023 Developing Leaders Award. The annual award honors exceptional professionals under the age of 35 for their outstanding professional accomplishments, strong leadership, and significant community involvement. The winners will be recognized during NAIOP's CRE.Converge 2023, Oct. 18-20, in Seattle. 

“These young professionals stand apart for the vision, leadership, and dedication they bring to NAIOP and commercial real estate,” said Marc Selvitelli, CAE, president and CEO of NAIOP. “We are pleased to recognize their accomplishments and their work in creating vibrant communities in which to work, live, and play. We look forward to a bright future ahead for each of these distinguished leaders.” 

Recipients of NAIOP’s 2023 Developing Leaders Award