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Complete the 2020 Compensation Survey and Receive a Free Report

NAIOP is again partnering with CEL & Associates, Inc. to compile the 2020 NAIOP/CEL Commercial Real Estate Compensation and Benefits Survey. A nationally known real estate advisor, CEL has conducted this survey – the largest in the industry – for 31 consecutive years.

Complete the survey by Friday, April 24th.

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COVID-19’s Impact on CRE: What We Know Today (and Don't)

Join NAIOP Charlotte on Tuesday, March 24th at 2-2:30 p.m. ET for The Advantage Series is an exclusive member benefit, delivering expert insights into the latest research to help you make informed business decisions.

Repercussions from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are far-reaching and still quite unknown, but one thing is for certain: the impact on commercial real estate will be substantial. A week ago, CRE fundamentals were solid; will that improve our recovery timeline? What do experts see for the potential future of the industry? How do you recognize a deal today, and know whether it’s better to act quickly or hold? The questions are numerous, and NAIOP is here with guidance to support you today and get you thinking ahead for tomorrow. Have a question for our speakers? Submit it now.

Speakers:
Larry Lance, Executive Vice President-Asset Services, EverWest Real Estate Investors, and 2020 NAIOP Chairman
Al Pontius, National Director of Office & Industrial, Marcus & Millichap
John Chang, National Director of Research Services, Marcus & Millichap

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Industrial Space Demand Forecast

Originally published in February 2020 by Hany Guirguis, Ph.D., Manhattan College and Timothy Savage, Ph.D., New York University

The NAIOP Industrial Space Demand Forecast is based on a predictive model that forecasts demand for industrial space at the national level on a quarterly basis for eight consecutive quarters.

It utilizes variables that comprise the entire supply chain and lead the demand for space, including varying measures of employment, GDP, exports and imports, and air, rail and shipping data.

Leading indicators that factor heavily into the model include the Federal Reserve Board’s Index of Manufacturing Output (IMO), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and net absorption data from CBRE Econometric Advisors.

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New Report: Office Leasing Activity to Sustain Momentum as US Economic Expansion Continues

Posted on December 6, 2019

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published the NAIOP Office Space Demand Forecast for Q4 2019.

Key Takeaways:

  • The U.S. office market continues to perform as expected, with an average of 14.7 million square feet absorbed per quarter in 2019.
     
  • The forecast for the remainder of 2019 and 2020 remains strong at an average of 13.2 million square feet absorbed per quarter in 2020 and 12.7 million square feet per quarter in 2021.
     
  • At present, the economy – and thus the office markets – are expected to remain in an upcycle for at least the next 18 months.
     
  • The effects of the WeWork situation are likely to be isolated to a small set of markets and will not broadly impact the national office market. The company's inability to expand may generate more demand for direct leases in some markets, but overall, coworking appears to be a long-term trend, and the forecast will likely resist any short-term impacts caused by WeWork's recent troubles.

Firms might slow their expansion plans in 2020, reducing the need for new office space, in reaction to overall fears of a slowdown. Still, most measures of consumer health, including wage growth, job growth and consumption expenditures, remain strong.

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The Suburban Office Park, an Aging Relic, Seeks a Comeback

Posted on November 25, 2019

By 

When Research Triangle Park in North Carolina opened in 1959, its bucolic setting was considered a major selling point. With office buildings hidden behind grassy meadows and swaths of pine forest, the quiet development was viewed as a perfect spot for the thinkers who went to work at companies like IBM and RTI International.

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New: Fall 2019 Sentiment Index

Posted on November 15, 2019

About The NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index

The NAIOP Sentiment Index is designed to predict general conditions in the commercial real estate industry over the next 12 months. The forecast is not based on an analysis of historical data, but rather it represents a look into the future by real estate developers, investors, operators and brokers. These NAIOP members are asked to respond to questions based on their ongoing work, including projects in their pipelines. For more information, see Understanding the Index.

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New Report: The Evolution of Suburban Office Parks

Posted on October 7, 2019

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published a new report titled "Profiles in the Evolution of Suburban Office Parks," by Dustin C. Read, Ph.D./J.D.

The author interviewed five developers who have recently updated suburban office parks in the United States and Canada to learn how they made these properties relevant for today's market.

Key Takeaways:

  • Redeveloped office parks must fit the preferences of the local workforce and the needs of local employers.
  • Developers should seek to understand local officials' priorities.
  • Developers should build flexibility into their plans and partner with creditors who understand that they may need to adapt to unforeseen circumstances.
  • Developers can maximize the value of their improvements by leveraging design, technology and amenities to develop a property's identity and build community.
  • Rebranding is often a critical component of a successful redevelopment strategy.
 Read the Report.

Solving the Construction Worker Shortage Puzzle

Posted on October 1, 2019

By Shawn Moura

In recent years, builders have faced a shortage of workers that has only grown more acute amid increasing demand for construction and record-low unemployment. Many of the 2.2 million construction workers who lost their jobs during the last recession either retired or found employment in other industries. At the same time, fewer new workers are taking their place because millennials are less attracted to careers in construction than past generations. Workers under the age of 25 make up only 9.0% of the construction workforce in the United States versus 12.3% of the nation’s overall workforce, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A report published by the NAIOP Research Foundation in July , “Addressing the Workforce Skills Gap in Construction and CRE-related Trades,” examines how employers are partnering with local communities in innovative training and recruitment programs to boost the supply of skilled construction workers in both urban and rural areas.

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Profiles in the Evolution of Suburban Office Parks

Posted on September 22, 2019

By Dustin Read

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published a new report titled "Profiles in the Evolution of Suburban Office Parks," by Dustin C. Read, Ph.D./J.D.

The author interviewed five developers who have recently updated suburban office parks in the United States and Canada to learn how they made these properties relevant for today's market.

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Industrial Demand Forecast Decreases as Economy Slows

Posted on August 19, 2019

By Dr. Hany Guirguis and Dr. Joshua Harris

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published the NAIOP Industrial Space Demand Forecast for Q3 2019.

Key Takeaways

  • The forecast for net industrial space demand has decreased amid slower growth in the U.S. economy. Absorption is now expected to average 37 million square feet per quarter for the next two years. This is a significant slowdown from the average 60 million square feet of quarterly net absorption experienced during 2017 and 2018.  
  • The average quarterly completions fell to 42 million square feet in the first half of 2019, down from an average of 54 million square feet per quarter during 2017 and 2018. Supply and demand are likely to stay in balance for the industrial sector; therefore, rents and vacancy rates should remain stable in many markets nationwide. 
  • A recession is not likely in the near term, but a general slowdown appears already underway; the first report of GDP growth in the second quarter fell to 2.1% from the 3.1% annualized result of the first quarter.
View the Forecast

Eight Things to Know About Industrial Real Estate Demand

Posted on August 12, 2019

By Gillam Campbell

Tariffs are in the air, but dealmaking continues on the ground in the U.S. industrial property market. Despite a slight softening, vacancy continues to hover at all-time historic lows. So, what’s driving the action? The following are eight things to know about demand for industrial property, according to JLL’s latest research Cheat Sheet:

  1. More tenants on the move, more locations needed. A year ago, our research showed 1,200 tenants seeking 439 million square feet of space. Now, roughly 1,600 tenants are in the market, looking for approximately 600 million square feet of space. The growing number of tenants includes not only new-to-market occupiers, but also companies that are looking to expand or replace square footage – whether  that means a last-mile e-commerce delivery center close to consumers or a more modern, flat-floor big-box warehouse that is ready for today’s high-tech distribution.
  2. Less is more when it comes to square footage. As consumers begin to expect next-day or even same-day delivery from their e-tailers, distribution strategies increasingly include smaller delivery centers, some of them in urban infill locations, that help companies cover the last mile to the customer. No wonder the average square footage requirement has shrunk by 10,000 square feet over the past year to reach 360,000 square feet.
Click here to read more.

New Report: Addressing the Workforce Skills Gap in Construction and CRE-related Trades

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published a new report titled "Addressing the Workforce Skills Gap in Construction and CRE-related Trades," by Barry E. Stern, Ph.D.

A shortage of construction and logistics workers has increased the cost of construction for developers and hampered the expansion and profitability of warehouse and distribution centers. The NAIOP Research Foundation commissioned this report to explore some of the contributing factors to the workforce shortage and how the construction and logistics industries can improve worker recruitment, training, productivity and retention.

Key Takeaways:

  • Contractors will increasingly need to adopt new technologies to improve worker productivity.
  • The most successful workforce development programs rely on multisector collaboration.
  • It is important to align workforce development programs with local trends.
  • Demonstrating that a job can be part of a long-term career is important to recruitment and retention in the logistics and construction industries.
  • The construction and logistics industries need to invest in training and recruiting high school students and recent graduates.
  • Investing in ongoing training for current employees ensures that workers have the latest skills and improves worker recruitment and retention.
 Download the Report

US Office Market Continues to Expand Ahead of Forecast

Posted July 9, 2019

By Dr. Harry Guirguis and Dr. Joshua Harris

Office Leasing Activity Expected to Grow Amid Sustained U.S. Economic Strength

The U.S. office market continues to expand ahead of forecast, posting 18 million square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 11 million square feet in the first quarter of 2019. Continued economic growth and increases in job creation are likely the main forces behind these levels of new leasing.

With first-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 3.2% annualized and a current unemployment rate of 3.6%, U.S. office space demand should remain strong during 2019. Dr. Harry Guirguis, Manhattan College, and Dr. Joshua Harris, New York University expect demand to register an average of 13.5 million square feet of net absorption per quarter, which will moderate slightly to an average of 12.7 million square feet per quarter in 2020. This forecast is driven by continued expected strength in office-using employment, which has grown twice as fast as general employment. According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s March 2019 jobs report, the primary office-using sector, Professional and Business Services, grew 1.22% year-over-year compared to just 0.6% for total nonfarm employment.

Click here to read more and download report.

Industrial Sector Embraces Innovation as Consumer Demand Stays Strong

Posted July 2, 2019

By Trey Barrineau

Amid a strong economy and surging demand for consumer products, industrial remains one of the hottest segments in the commercial real estate industry. That’s in spite of a minor cooling off that’s predicted for 2019 after several years of exceptional growth powered by the rise of e-commerce and the need for last-mile distribution facilities.

The NAIOP Industrial Space Demand Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 sees demand remaining steady at 57 million square feet of absorption per quarter, roughly the same as 2018. Additionally, the national vacancy rate is just 7 percent.

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NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index

Posted on May 8, 2019

The NAIOP Sentiment Index is designed to predict general conditions in the commercial real estate industry over the next 12 months. The forecast is not based on an analysis of historical data, but rather it represents a look into the future by real estate developers, investors, operators and brokers. These NAIOP members are asked to respond to questions based on their ongoing work, including projects in their pipelines. For more information, see Understanding the Index.

Download the Report

Creating a Private Equity Fund: A Guide for Real Estate Professionals

Posted on April 16, 2019

By Jan A. deRoos, PhD and Shaun Bond, PhD

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published a new white paper titled "Creating a Private Equity Fund: A Guide for Real Estate Professionals," by Jan A. deRoos, Ph.D., HVS Professor of Hotel Finance and Real Estate at SC Johnson College of Business, Cornell University; and Shaun Bond, Ph.D., West Shell Jr. Chair in Real Estate at Lindner College of Business, University of Cincinnati.

Key Takeaways:

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Big Data in Office Buildings Holds Promise Despite Privacy Worries

Posted on March 29, 2019

By Margarita Foster

Property managers are using “dynamic and multidimensional” information for operations but not yet for tenant engagement.

A white paper published by the NAIOP Research Foundation titled “The Office Property and Big Data Puzzle: Putting the Pieces Together”found that office building owners are capturing, storing and analyzing data to operate building systems but not to recruit and retain tenants.

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Industrial Demand to Remain Level as Economy Steadies

Posted on March 20, 2019

By Dr. Hany Guirguis and Dr. Joshua Harris

The forecast for net industrial space demand will remain steady in 2019. According to Dr. Hany Guirguis of Manhattan College and Dr. Joshua Harris of New York University, demand will remain at approximately 57 million square feet per quarter for 2019. That is unchanged from the average actual 2018 quarterly absorption of 57 million square feet. Industrial absorption in the final half of 2018 came in slightly above expectations due to higher consumer spending and retail sales, which were buoyed by a strong job market.

Industrial demand will be off to a strong start in 2019 with a potential tapering off into 2020 as rising interest rates moderate the economy’s growth rate. At present, the risk of a downturn in the industrial space market appears slim as the nationwide vacancy rate sits at a historically low 7.0 percent. Further, gross and net asking rents are at all-time highs, indicating that the market supply continues to tighten at a steady rate.

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New Report: Industrial Demand to Remain Level as Economy Steadies

Posted on March 4, 2019

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published the NAIOP Industrial Space Demand Forecast for Q1 2019.

Key Takeaways

  • Demand will remain at approximately 57 million square feet per quarter for 2019. That is unchanged from the average actual 2018 quarterly absorption of 57 million square feet.
     
  • At present, the risk of a downturn in the industrial space market appears slim as the nationwide vacancy rate sits at a historically low 7.0 percent. Further, gross and net asking rents are at all-time highs, indicating that the market supply continues to tighten at a steady rate.
     
  • While data are somewhat suppressed due to the U.S. government shutdown that took place from December 22, 2018, until January 25, 2019, economic indicators point to moderate growth.
     
  • Overall U.S. economic activity will remain steady in 2019, with annualized rates of GDP growth in the mid-2 percent range. Steady growth is the biggest factor keeping the industrial demand forecast stable. The labor market and overall consumer confidence are also expected to grow for the year, with industrial space demand increasingly influenced by consumer spending.

Overall, the U.S. industrial real estate markets appear to be healthy and stable. It is the asset class that is potentially in the best position to weather any macroeconomic downturn that may come in the next several years.

View the forecast.

New Report: Economic Impacts of Commercial Real Estate (2019 Edition)

Posted on February 20, 2019

The NAIOP Research Foundation has published the Economic Impacts of Commercial Real Estate report.

Combining the economic contributions of new development with the economic contributions from operation of existing buildings, the following economic contributions were made:

  • Contributed $1.0 trillion to U.S. GDP
  • Generated $325.9 billion in salaries and wages
  • Supported a total of 8.3 million new and existing jobs

Key factors impacting economic growth in 2019 and beyond include the following:

  • Interest rates. They are projected to move higher in 2019 as the Federal Reserve raises its rate three-quarters of a point in two or three increments over the year;
  • Labor shortages. They are already appearing in several key sectors—construction is one of them—and will tighten further in 2019 with resulting increases in wage inflation;
  • Energy prices. which unexpectedly declined during the second half of 2018 are expected to rebound in 2019 to their highest levels since 2014; and
  • The resolution of trade wars and higher tariffs instituted in 2018 and how these might affect U.S. exports, which increased their contribution to GDP expansion in 2018.
Read the Report